Early Emmy Predictions Already Show Potential Upsets

[Image Credit Michael Buckner | Variety | Getty Images]

Predictions for the 2026 Emmys are admittedly early, but a handful of categories have already seen a switch at the top. Several favorites are well in the lead and don’t have many competitors, like The Pitt’s Noah Wyle for Outstanding Lead Actor (Drama) and Hacks’ Jean Smart for Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy). However, many others have emerged as the new frontrunners and contenders for a golden statuette. The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards is set to air in September 14, but the voting round for Emmy nominations starts in just a month on June 11.

The leaders in four Emmy 2026 categories have changed

Early predictions for the 2026 Emmys have seen the leaders flip in four categories, based on several prediction markets on Kalshi.

The JFK Jr. bio-drama Love Story has taken the lead over Netflix’s Beef for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The competition between these two series continues through to the bid for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, where Beef’s Cailee Spaeny has passed Love Story’s Grace Summer.

Meanwhile, Shrinking’s Jason Segel has overtaken the top spot for Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy) from Only Murders in the Building’s Martin Short, who has never won the award in the category. Then for Outstanding Supporting Actor (Drama), The Morning Show’s Billy Crudup has caught up with The Pitt’s Patrick Ball, which is not too much of a surprise since Crudup has won the category twice in the past (2020, 2024).

The full odds (as of May 7) for the major 2026 Emmy categories can be found below. It should be noted that the list of options is long since the nominations haven’t been revealed yet, which will narrow the candidates. We have also removed the option for ties, and replaced some of the “–%” fields (which we call “Negligible”) with preliminary probabilities based on their current trades. These odds are also different than the ones we featured earlier.

Outstanding Drama Series

The Pitt – 76% Pluribus – 20% Euphoria – 4% The Testaments – 4% The Diplomat – Less than 1% The Gilded Age – Less than 1% Industry – Less than 1% A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms – Less than 1% The Morning Show – Less than 1% Paradise – Less than 1% Slow Horses – Less than 1% Stranger Things – Less than 1% Task – Less than 1%

Outstanding Comedy Series

Hacks – 59% Margo’s Got Money Troubles – 14% Shrinking – 14% The Comeback – 13% Nobody Wants This – 9% Only Murders in the Building – 6% Rooster – 3% Abbot Elementary – Less than 1% The Bear – Less than 1% The Chair Company – Less than 1% Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat – Less than 1%

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Love Story – 34% Beef – 32% Half Man – 23% Lord of the Flies – 18% The Beast in Me – 7% Death by Lightning – 7% DTF St. Louis – 5% All Her Fault – 5% Black Rabbit – 2% Bait – Less than 1%

Outstanding Television Movie

Remarkable Bright Creatures – 41% Deep Cover – 13% The Thursday Murder Club – 12% Swiped – 9% Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man – 7% Happy Gilmore 2 – 6% Echo Valley – 5% Straw – 5% A Winter’s Song – 4% The Best You Can – Less than 1%

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Noah Wyle (The Pitt) – 76% Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) – 7% Billy Bob Thornton (Landman) – Negligible Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) – Negligible Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors) – Negligible Mark Ruffalo (Task) – Negligible Peter Claffey (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms) – Negligible Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat) – Negligible Tom Hiddleston (The Night Manager) – Negligible Walton Goggins (Fallout) – Negligible

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) – 67% Keri Russell (The Diplomat) – 25% Zendaya (Euphoria) – 12% Michelle Pfeiffer (The Madison) – 6% Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age) – Less than 1% Chase Infiniti (The Testaments) – Less than 1% Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) – Less than 1% Kathy Bates (Matlock) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Billy Grudup (The Morning Show) – 28% Patrick Ball (The Pitt) – 28% Tom Pelphrey (Task) – 21% Jacob Elordi (Euphoria) – 15% Carlos-Manuel Vesga (Pluribus) – Less than 1% Dexter Sol Ansell (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms) – Less than 1% Gerran Howell (The Pitt) – Less than 1% James Marsden (Paradise) – Less than 1% Colman Domingo (Euphoria) – Negligible Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) – Negligible

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt) – 66% Julianne Nicholson (Paradise) – 12% Karolina Wydra (Pluribus) – 9% Taylor Dearden (The Pitt) – 6% Emilia Jones (Task) – 5% Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria) – 3% Allison Janney (The Diplomat) – Less than 1% Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age) – Less than 1% Fiona Dourif (The Pitt) – Less than 1% Isa Briones (The Pitt) – Less than 1% Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Jason Segel (Shrinking) – 42% Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) – 33% Steven Carell (Rooster) – 18% Ethan Hawke (The Lowdown) – 5% Steven Martin (Only Murders in the Building) – 5% Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) – Less than 1% Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) – Less than 1% Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside) – Less than 1% Tim Robinson (The Chair Company) – Less than 1% Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Wonder Man) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Jean Smart (Hacks) – 70% Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback) – 25% Elle Fanning (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 12% Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) – 6% Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) – 5% Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) – Less than 1% Jenna Ortega (Wednesday) – Less than 1% Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale) – Less than 1% Rachel Sennott (I Love L.A.) – Less than 1% Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Buildings) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Harrison Ford (Shrinking) – 63% Nick Offerman (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 22% Michael Urie (Shrinking) – 12% Paul W. Downs (Hacks) – 7% Ebon Moss-Machrach (The Bear) – 6% Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) – 6% Andrew Scott (The Comeback) – 6% Ben Kingsley (Wonder Man) – 6% Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live) – 6% Marcello Hernandez (Saturday Night Live) – 6%

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) – 56% Michelle Pfeiffer (Margo’s Got Money Troubles) – 26% Jessica Williams (Shrinking) – 7% Carol Burnett (Palm Royale) – 5% Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) – 5% Allison Janney (Palm Royale) – Negligible Ashley Padilla (Saturday Night Live) – Negligible Danielle Deadwyler (Rooster) – Negligible Liza Colon-Zayas (The Bear) – Negligible Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) – Negligible

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Oscar Isaac (Beef) – 92% Richard Gadd (Half Man) – 27% Matthew Rhys (The Beast in Me) – 26% Jamie Bell (Half Man) – 9% David Harbour (DTF St. Louis) – 7% Charlie Hunnam (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) – 4% Jason Bateman (Black Rabbit) – 4% Cillian Murphy (Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man) – Less than 1% Michael Shannon (Death by Lightning) – Less than 1% Paul Anthony Kelley (Love Story) – Less than 1% Riz Ahmed (Bait) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Sarah Pidgeon (Love Story) – 42% Sarah Snook (All Her Fault) – 22% Carey Mulligan (Beef) – 14% Claire Danes (The Beast in Me) – 10% Helen Mirren (The Thursday Murder Club) – Less than 1% Kerry Washington (Imperfect Women) – Less than 1% Linda Cardellini (DTF St. Louis) – Less than 1% Robin Wright (The Girlfriend) – Less than 1% Rachel Weisz (Vladimir) – Less than 1% Tessa Thompson (His and Hers) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Charles Melton (Beef) – 40% Richard Gadd (Half Man) – 13% David Harbour (DTF St. Louis) – 9% Jonathan Banks (The Beast in Me) – 5% Nick Offerman (Death by Lightning) – 5% Alessandro Nivola (Love Story) – 4% Jamie Bell (Half Man) – 3% Jake Lacy (All Her Fault) – 2% Richard Jenkins (DTF St. Louis) – 2% Tom Hollander (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) – 2% Troy Kotsur (Black Rabbit) – 2% Michael Pena (All Her Fault) – Less than 1%

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Cailee Spaeny (Beef) – 34% Grace Summer (Love Story) – 29% Yuh-Jung Youn (Beef) – 23% Laurie Metcalf (Monster: The Ed Gein Story) – 10% Naomi Watts (Love Story) – 7% Dakota Fanning (All Her Fault) – Less than 1% Betty Gilpin (Death by Lightning) – Less than 1% Brittany Snow (The Beast in Me) – Less than 1% Constance Zimmer (Love Story) – Less than 1% Sophia Lillis (All Her Fault) – Less than 1%

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