Toy Story 5’s Massive Box Office Prediction Justifies Pixar’s Most Divisive Choice

The initial box office projection for Toy Story 5 signals that Pixar has a massive hit on its hands. The financial success also justifies the company’s most divisive choice in recent memory.

Toy Story 5 is going to be big, though just how big is still unknown. The movie is tracking for an opening weekend of $140 million domestic and $275 million worldwide. Both estimates are on conservative as the franchise’s popularity and positive word of mouth could propel Toy Story 5 to a domestic opening closer to $160 million.

Either way, Toy Story 5 is poised to register the biggest opening weekend in the Toy Story franchise, surpassing 2019’s Toy Story 4 ($120 million). With numbers like these, Toy Story 5 could very well gross over $1 billion by the time its theatrical run ends.

Toy Story 5 is the latest proof that Pixar’s franchise focus works

Pixar used to be a behemoth that could turn original movies into critical and financial successes. Then, COVID-19 happened, and Pixar wasn’t as bulletproof anymore. Releasing Pixar movies straight to Disney+ negatively affected the performance of future movies, especially non-sequels.

2021’s Luca flopped, 2022’s Turning Red went directly to Disney+, and 2022’s Lightyear massively underperformed. 2023’s Elemental ended up doing OK with a worldwide haul of $496 million. However, Pixar needed to change its strategy.

In 2024, then-Disney CEO Bob Iger decided Pixar needed to lean on sequels and mix them in with originals. The decision worked immediately, as 2024’s Inside Out 2 became the highest-grossing movie in Pixar’s history at nearly $1.7 billion.

After Inside Out 2, 2025’s Elio flopped, but 2026’s Hoppers became a small hit. Now, Toy Story 5 will likely gross over $1 billion. Disney has another huge sequel coming in 2028 with Incredibles 3.

For now, the strategy to release a massive sequel every other year is working and will likely continue past 2028.

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